Australian coal’s expansion plans make a mockery of government’s carbon tax claims

David Spratt

The expansion of Australian coal mining will add about 1.75Gt (gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide annually to the atmosphere – about 11 times what the Australian government estimates will be saved by the carbon tax legislation that recently passed Parliament.

That’s Guy Pearse speaking at Woodford on 31 December.   He says that even the emissions from smaller players have a staggering impact, for example:

• the annual emissions from Aston/Whitehaven’s new mines, or of QCoal's mines will each be greater than all the CO2 saved by all the hybrid cars ever sold world-wide;
• The new mines of the relatively small Jellinbah Coal add nearly 100 times as much CO2 as is saved by all he household solar panel installations in Australia.

As Padding Manning reported in the Fairfax business press on 21 November, the coal industry is hoping to double or triple export volumes in the next five to 10 years, to as much as 1 billion tonnes a year, up from about 300 million tonnes this year:

The accumulated emissions of those coal exports, over a mine life of 30 years, would be roughly 20 gigatonnes,assuming the carbon content of coal is 70 per cent.

Using the carbon budget approach advocated by our Climate Commission, says Climate Code Red co-author David Spratt, the world's total emissions must be no more than 175 billion tonnes between 2012 and 2050, if we are to keep warming to 2 degrees.

It is hard to imagine little Australia will get to chew up 11 per cent of the whole world's carbon budget for the next four decades, so it can increase coal exports. ''We have a choice between a billion tonnes of year of coal exports, or a climate with the food and water security fit for the worlds people,'' says Spratt. ''We can have one or the other, but not both.’’

Those were back of the envelope figures I did in hurry, and now Pearse has provided a lot more analysis, and included gas exports, to come up with a  similar figure of 1/8th of the global carbon budget, of around 12%.

Pearse’s speech is available here. In a note to his e-list, Pearse says:

I gave a talk at Woodford last Saturday that may be of interest. It focussed on the ever increasing scale of the coal boom in Australia, the key players and the emissions implications.

I had not previously seen someone tally the mine production and life of mine data to enable an assessment of the cumulative Gt CO2 likely to come from Australia’s coal industry by 2050. Having done so, albeit a little roughly, I estimate that Australian coal exports will generate around 75Gt CO2 between now and 2050 – perhaps another 5Gt will come from domestic coal use, and 8-10 Gt from LNG if the expansion of coal seam gas proceeds. In rough terms, between now and 2050, Australian fossil fuel could account for about 1/8th of the remaining carbon budget for 2 degrees C. This highlights the global significance of the coal boom now unfolding in Australia. I have also tried to break the Australian coal rush down to explain the CO2 emissions company by company in terms more readily understandable for the general public. So, for example:

• The proposed GVK/Hancock mines in the Galilee Basin are equivalent to a 6% increase in the global car fleet (another 63 million cars);
• the Waratah mines (excluding Carmichael East -- yet to be quantified) are like increasing international aviation by 1/3rd;
• the new Xstrata mines are like doubling Australia’s coal fired power stations;
• the Adani mine (just one project) is like doubling Queensland’s emissions;
• the proposed Mejin mine is like doubling the emissions of 60 small countries;
• the new Peabody mines in Australia almost equate to adding the CO2 emissions of Pakistan, 
• the Bandanna mines are like doubling Australia’s agricultural emissions.

Even the emissions from smaller players have a staggering impactor example:

• the annual emissions from Aston/Whitehaven’s new mines, or of QCoal's mines will each be greater than all the CO2 saved by all the hybrid cars ever sold world-wide;
• The new mines of the relatively small Jellinbah Coal add nearly 100 times as much CO2 as is saved by all he household solar panel installations in Australia.

Tallied up, the new/expanded coal mines in Australia add about 1.75Gt of CO2 annually – about 11 times what the Australian government estimates will be saved by the carbon tax legislation that recently passed Parliament. By 2020 or soon thereafter, Australia is exporting nearly twice as much CO2 as is Saudi Arabia today. If these numbers are not already an underestimate, as I believe they probably are, they will soon be. New mines are being announced ever month or two—quickly rendering CO2 calculations redundant 

Needless to say, it’s hard to see how this sort of expansion in coal production is consistent with any effective global climate change response. 

That is a beautiful understatement. When the government's carbon tax draft legislation was released in mid-2100 we said that it was a compromise between players with different, and often opposing interests, and is far from being as ambitious and science-driven as the community climate action movement understands is necessary.

Statements from the prime minister that Australia's coal industry will continue to expand are frightening and suggest that some in the Labor government have chosen not to understand the depth and urgency of the climate change challenge. Real action on climate means winding down coal exports, and ensuring that no new coal mines are opened.

A large gap remains between political will and the scientific realities, and the scheme's targets must be lifted over time, together with an industry plan for skills, jobs and investment to build the clean, renewable energy economy. The national carbon reduction targets must rise rapidly, so as to respond appropriately and urgently to what the climate science is telling us.